I am trying to explore the limits of digitization.  If you take the current process of digitization to its most extreme limit, then what will our world look like? And how will the relationships that companies have with their consumers change?  My starting point is the premise that today we are only halfway through this digitization path.  People often talk about the Digital World as if we’re already in it, but I don’t think we are—the digitization process clearly has some way to go yet.  Nevertheless, it remains a premise or an assumption; my point is not to prove this point or to measure it somehow.  Essentially this is a thought-exercise.  If you agree that we are halfway there, then what will happen in the next major phase of digitization? And are we prepared? 

 

I like to compare it to being in a swimming pool with a shallow and a deep end.  We started in the shallow end and gradually walked to the deep end but at a certain point we will lose our footing; the question then is: can we swim?  Similarly, I suspect that we’re heading to the deep side of the digital world.  In many ways the current period is a transition point to another paradigm, where new rules apply.  With this exercise I’m forcing myself to look beyond the incremental changes—such all the talk about web 2.0 and web 3.0—and to explore the limits of digitization.  I’m trying to look across to the other side of the pool. 

 

Let’s look at a few examples to illustrate this exercise.  People my age grew up writing a thesis; and we wrote papers. At work we sent memos. But those memos became shorter and shorter.  Now we’re emailing, text messaging and Twittering. Our attention span for information is becoming shorter and shorter, and ultimately, at its limit, will approach zero attention span.  How we will process information at that point is still anybody’s guess but it is likely to be near instantaneous.  Another example: in the past we had to go to the library to learn more about a given topic. Today we Google it or go to Wikipedia—these allow us to know nearly everything about nearly everything.  We can drill down in a matter of seconds and become experts in minutes.  At its limit, the depth of information is infinity.  And the limit to intelligence—i.e. the time it takes to get smart about something—is Real Time.  Privacy, a contentious topic at present in light of the social networks, will need to be redefined since its limit is total transparency.  Patience is another interesting dimension.  Today we are completely intolerant of failure when it comes to electricity.  We are beginning to expect the same from online applications and at its limit our patience will tend to one, or to ‘now’.  It is at that point that the digital world will be part of our everyday, normal life; hence the title of the book, ‘The New Normal’.

 

What’s interesting about these dimensions is that once the digitisation process passes a specific point—call it the halfway point—then new rules start applying.  Thus, makers of technologies are faced with a major challenge at present.  Until now they’ve been building a Rolls Royce; but people are now realising that a VW is good enough, as long as it doesn’t fail.  That’s interesting because it forces us think about technology as something that is embedded in the product.  We need to focus on the performance of the product and not expect that people will be enthralled by fancy technology.  Look at any sector and you will be able to see these transition points, in education, in healthcare, in banking.  For example, today you expect your home banking application to work always—there is zero toleration for failure.  In the past, digital banking was special and hence we tolerated failure.  Also from the bank’s perspective digital was special; they mostly had analogue customers with whom they occasionally had a digital interaction.  But at a certain point this pivots around; the bank will have mainly digital customers with whom they occasionally have an analogue relationship.  Here we are not talking about an incremental shift anymore, but about a transition to a new business model.  And not simply in terms of the distribution model, because analogue loyalty does not necessarily transfer to digital loyalty.

I don’t think so. The length of attention span will indeed decline but it is a two sided coin, because depth will tend to infinity. Superficial communication is getting shorter, as Twitter illustrates, but if I want to learn more I can simply access Wikipedia. Take the health care sector. In the past as a patient you were totally dependent on your all-knowing physician; today you can look up as much information as you like about your symptoms and illness. It empowers; it doesn’t dumb down. Similarly, in the past the physician had to listen to the pharmaceutical sales rep to learn more about a new medicine.Today that physician can look up the necessary information him or herself.   

 

I’m concerned mostly about our educational system. It is becoming increasingly irrelevant to ask young people to simply replicate knowledge. We need to teach children to think critically and to intelligently search and navigate the knowledge that is available all around us. There already is a widening gap, I think, between the Anglo-Saxon model and ours in continental Europe. In Belgium, for example, we are gradually slipping in the rankings. We still have a lot of top students and researchers but the median is declining. Clearly we’re not adapting to the new realities. I spent a lot of time in the US; it was there that I learned to think and to present. You get forced on stage there and have to learn to argue your point.

Organisations too will need to adapt.  Technology is becoming mainstream; it is becoming normal.  That’s why technology cannot be left to the techies.  Everybody needs to be engaged with technology.  In fact, the IT department should be scrapped.  We all need to start thinking in digital terms.  Also, technology is changing the way we work.  The consumerisation of IT has led to a situation where people have better IT equipment at home than they have access to at work.  Ultimately we are moving towards much more virtual, fluid organisations, where people move from project to project.  You cannot rely on staff loyalty anymore; or on the classic hierarchical models to manage organisations. The new organisations will need to be steered horizontally; but how do you that?  That clearly is a challenge that HR managers are beginning to think about, although they don’t have the answer yet.