It is important to make a distinction between open source and free. Free software  isn’t necessarily open source, or vice versa. If people want to make their source code accessible to others then they have every right to do so. In fact, it can make total sense to do so; but there has to be a business model behind it to survive in the long term. For example, Dries Buyaert founded an open source project (Drupal) but he started a business making money by offering services for Drupal via his venture Acquia. Even at Microsoft we have several open source initiatives like CodePlex, that all make sense in our commercial business model. I think that nuance is important.

 

Having a survivable business model clearly is important.  Think about it. About 3000-4000 companies took part in the first internet boom, but only about 50 survived.  In the second boom, today, about 6000-8000 companies are participating but probably only about 30 are breakeven.  A great deal of venture capital money is being burned at the moment.  ‘Free’ may be an important trend but I do not believe that advertising is the only business model for supporting an entire industry. 

I guess not that good yet. We have one international success story: Netlog.  A few others are trying like Tunz but that’s about it. People in this country are pretty conservative. Compared to countries like the Netherlands we always seem a little behind. We’re not as quick to invest in new technology, to experiment, which makes it harder for our technology entrepreneurs. Ultimately we do follow the market but we’re more careful.  I think that we do generate a lot of smart ideas here but we do not execute so well.  We don’t ‘create’ the market, as the Dutch and the Americans do so well as it looks we are more risk averse.  Hence we tend to wait for government to take the initiative; a minister needs to take the initiative. For example, we have some of the best European education available in computer games development.  But we haven’t managed to build a sizable games industry; while in Sweden they did—several thousand people work in the Swedish game development industry.  Also here some people waited for the government subsidies and the secure, long-term contracts. The Swedes didn’t wait.

 

But on the other hand this consciousness could be one of our core advantages.  For 400 years this has been one of the most prosperous regions in the world.  You could say that entrepreneurship is in our DNA.  Cities like Antwerp, Ghent and Bruges were built on entrepreneurship going back centuries.  Such consistent, durable prosperity is rare, and maybe we achieved that because we’re careful.  Maybe the current tech boom is a bubble we’re wise to stay clear of.  Netlog is a fantastic achievement but in the new economy there is little or no loyalty.  Netlog users, all youngsters, have little loyalty, notwithstanding their huge user base.  If for some reason Netlog users decide to switch to something trendier then that will impact the business model quite quickly.  So in order to survive you need to innovate—and that applies just as well to the world of social media.  

The long term approach is to adapt our educational system. The problem is that interest in technical study directions—science, engineering, ICT—has dramatically declined.  And there seems to be a collapse in the gender balance.  What I hear from some schools is that the decline in ICT and engineering students is largely linked to the dramatic decline in interest among girls.

As an individual you are influenced by your friends and family first, then by the school environment, and then the broader media and societal environment. Clearly the problem is with our schools.  In the last 10 years there has been little progress in technology-related education at school.  If you do decide to study for a technical career then that is probably due to encouragement you received from your parents. Secondary education certainly does not encourage interest in technology.  In higher education the situation is little better since the approach tends to be very theoretical.  And by then it’s too late anyway; youngsters need to make their career decisions far too early. I’m not a specialist in educational policy but clearly we need to address this problem better. The government, the technology sector via Agoria—we really need to focus even more on this.  Our economy lacks a technological orientation, and too little new innovative technology players are emerging.

   

If you look at the main technology trends today, then I would say that there are almost none where we in this country cannot play a significant role.  We have the science and the talent.  

 

One important trend is what we like to call at Microsoft the three screens & the cloud.  We’re moving to an environment where you have three screens—for example, your laptop, your mobile device and your TV screen at home—all connected to the cloud.  We think this will stimulate tremendous innovation in a range of different areas, for example in the user interface.  At the moment we rely mainly on graphic user interfaces—the classic screen with keyboard and mouse—but in the years ahead we’ll start seeing more natural user interface technologies that integrate touch, voice, gestures, etc.

 

Essentially it is about creating new platforms that themselves spawn or stimulate new innovations.  For example, at Microsoft we recently developed a new interface technology we called Surface.  Basically it is a computer in the shape of table-top screen, which responds to natural hand movements and objects.  But it is also a platform for developing all sorts of applications. That is what we are trying to stimulate via our innovation centre in Mons.  We are looking for partners to develop applications or services that run on Surface.  Note, we’re not an investor or VC; all we do is bring people and resources together to help stimulate the local software economy.  That makes us one of the only divisions within Microsoft that does not have a commercial agenda.  

 

Our objective is to stimulate the market; to create a bigger cake for all.  We don’t even demand use of our technology.  That’s why I’m somewhat perplexed that Belgian companies are not jumping faster on these types of technologies.   I suspect that too many companies still think they have to invent it all themselves, as opposed to working on existing platforms or collaborate with other local players.  You do not always need to invent something entirely new; sometimes plain reinvention is enough.  Look at Bongo (ed. note. a gift voucher business), they reinvented the voucher!

 

The other key trend is the cloud.  That too is a great platform for further innovation.  When Edison invented the electric power station he unleashed the innovation in electric products.  The same applies today to IT.  Basic computing power is becoming a commodity, which allows people to start developing all sorts of new, innovative services in the cloud. At Microsoft our R&D is focused on these key trends.  Our goal is to develop platforms—akin to the central power station—for local software economies.